Qianhai open source Yang Delong Europe and the United States and the current economic and policy int shiyang

Qianhai Kaiyuan Yang Delong: the current European Economic and policy comprehensive interpretation – fund channel on August European monetary policy and macroeconomic eurozone composite PMI initial value increased slightly, a 7 month high, showing the euro zone economic growth remained stable trend. The United States in August manufacturing PMI fell slightly. Financial data analysis agency IHSMarkit announced that the euro area in August consolidated PMI initial value of 53.3, slightly higher than in July of 53.2, the highest level since 7 months. IHSMarkit report that the euro area economy remains stable growth, despite inflation is still in the doldrums, and the confidence in the service sector fell, but the region is expected in the quarter GDP will grow by 0.3%, with the average level in the first half. Eurozone August PMI data show that the three quarter of the euro area economy has been growing steadily, there is no sign that the British referendum brought back to Europe uncertainty, affecting the economic recovery. This shows that the United Kingdom is the potential impact of Europe, will not be reflected in one or two months. After the British took off from Europe, and some of the European trading partners negotiations, has just begun, it will take a long time before we can completely eliminate the impact of the United Kingdom from europe. The European economy itself is also a certain degree of toughness, but not because the United Kingdom will be a large decline in europe. So we see the August PM I data picked up, this is a good phenomenon, is expected in the next two or three months there will be a recovery in the economy. The results of Britain’s referendum is indeed a surprise, for European integration also has some negative effects, it is difficult to see from the data. There is no way to feel the impact of the euro, but will be reflected in the next year and two years of economic data. In particular, the UK after the euro, the impact on the UK’s economic growth may be greater. Europe’s current monetary policy is already relatively loose, short-term economic data is expected to pick up the European Central Bank will continue to ease the possibility of easing. The European Central Bank is likely to maintain the current level of interest rates, the European Central Bank now has begun to zero or even negative interest rate policy, the future will take a relatively relaxed policy, but further quantitative easing in the short term can not see. The development prospects of economic recovery for the whole of Europe is still a good thing, especially like France, Germany, France, economic growth has stabilized the country’s words, for the stability of the global economy will have a certain effect. In December last year when the Fed’s first rate hike, I assumed that this year the Fed rate hike pace is very slow, at most is also a plus interest, but market participants generally believe that at that time may raise rates 4 times. At present, the time has passed for more than half a year, but the Fed is a little rain, and no interest rate hike. I expect the possibility of interest rate hike in September is also minimal, once the U.S. dollar interest rate hike is too strong, the United States will play a negative role in the recovery of the manufacturing sector. I estimate that the Fed is now up until the end of the year to raise interest rates, or even this year may not raise interest rates until next year and then raise interest rates. About oil and commodities OPEC.相关的主题文章:

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