Blue Lake 2015 Boyu Hu capital was hit in the face prediction-魔界骑士イングリッド

Blue Lake: 2015 Boyu Hu capital was hit in the face I wrote "forecast forecast 2015 will happen at the beginning of 2015". It was felt that this is a dangerous thing, because ten years after the matter prediction is relatively easy, because cannot be verified, but the forecast within 12 months of things, or non minutes was hit in the face? This does not, in the past year, we come together to see what I guess, what’s not right, to face myself. These are my guess: "1 hour service" has become the new standard of fresh electricity supplier, there will be a bloody battle. Jingdong, the U.S. group, Baidu, hungry have on-line supermarket business, or self-employed or purchasing, love fresh bee, lightning and several campus purchase convenience stores, O2O fruit electricity supplier have reached tens of thousands per day to one hundred thousand orders of magnitude of the single, there is no public individual magic group purchase even in a few months to ten single day amount. But all of these people were tortured by two things: very low unit prices and high delivery costs. Basically every order to lose more than 5 yuan, so every day 100 thousand single represents at least 500 thousand deficit every day, loss of at least 15 million a month. (don’t you think it’s a waste? How much can it save me?) Service O2O blowout in high frequency field. The taxi hit several times, and carpool, drive, bus business, and even test drive – what’s the ghost?. Takeaway business continues to flourish, not only Baidu’s spoiler, unexpectedly also turned a dada and takeaway supermarket purchasing platform, with the suddenness of a thunderbolt on the size of the order to achieve 7 digit. Traditional industry supply chain is rapidly changed by smart phone. Blue Lake’s capital investment agricultural products supply chain, the American vegetable network, has grown wildly over the past few weeks, and has rapidly covered the north and the south. In some cities, it has begun to affect the price of the wholesale market of agricultural products. WeChat and mobile phone QQ have become an important (or even major) tool for distribution, procurement of clothing, cloth, auto parts, steel, chemical and other industries. In the Internet Financial opportunism, the players will have serious problems and even affect the entire industry. That’s basically the whole story. P2P loan company run away a lot, "the Internet outside financing to boost the stock market change radically, the ruin of countless investors. Specific examples will not give up, is full of tears. WeChat is becoming more like micro-blog. With the influence of "self media" becoming larger and commercial realizable, the boundaries between "self media" and "media" are becoming increasingly blurred. We counted a number, VC official public number posting frequency is "one every day", and the article is also divided into several columns, accumulated hundreds of thousands of fans, has "raised" become "VC first big"". Don’t get me wrong. I didn’t say anything derogatory about it. Blue Lake capital really wanted to learn from them. (we got a dozen of them in 2015, shame on them). The question making tool becomes the copy work artifact. A year later, App took the title should be in the student in the mobile phone has become the standard of it, a rough count, the students every day at least to be "rescued" nearly 100 million times. Just need it. Electricity.

蓝湖资本胡博予:2015年被打脸的预测   我在2015年初写了篇《预测一下2015年会发生的事情》。当时就觉得这是个危险的事情,因为预测十年以后的事情比较容易,因为反正无法验证,但是预测12个月之内的事情,岂非分分钟被打脸?这不,一年过去了,我们来一起看看哪些事情被我猜中了,哪些没猜中,要打脸自己打。   这些是被我猜中的:   “1小时送达”成为电商新标准,生鲜电商将有一场血战。京东、美团、百度、饿了么纷纷上线超市业务,或自营或代购,爱鲜蜂、闪电购以及数个校园便利店、O2O水果电商都已经达到每天数万单到十万单的数量级,有个别神奇的团购公众号甚至在几个月内达到了十几万日单量。不过,所有这些人都被两样东西折磨得死去活来:很低的客单价和很高的交付成本。基本上每个订单要亏损5元以上,所以每天10万单就代表每天至少亏50万,一个月至少亏1500万。(你是不是在想,真浪费,这钱省下来给我多好。)   服务O2O在高频领域井喷。滴滴打车又翻了几倍,还上线了拼车、代驾、大巴业务(甚至还有试驾――这是什么鬼)。外卖业务继续蓬勃发展,不但百度发力搅局,达达竟然也转身做了个外卖加超市代购平台,以迅雷不及掩耳之势把日订单规模做到7位数。   传统行业供应链被智能手机快速改变。蓝湖资本投资的农产品供应链公司“美菜网”这一年来以每过几周翻一倍的速度疯狂增长,已经迅速覆盖大江南北,在某些城市已经开始影响农贸批发市场的价格了。微信和手机QQ已经成为服装、布料、汽车配件、钢铁、化工等行业的分销、采购的重要(甚至是主要)工具。   互联网金融里的机会主义者玩家会出严重问题甚至影响整个行业。这一点基本全中了。跑路的P2P贷款公司一大把,“互联网场外融资”助推股市大起大落,无数投资人倾家荡产。具体例子就不举了,全是血泪。   微信越来越像微博了。随着“自媒体”的影响力变大、开始商业化变现,“自媒体”和“媒体”的界限也越来越模糊了。我们数了一下,某VC的官方公众号的发帖频率是“每天一篇”,而且文章还分若干栏目,积累了几十万的粉丝,已经“养”成了“VC第一大号”。别误会,我说这话一点贬义都没有,蓝湖资本真心想向他们学习(我们2015年总共才发了十来篇,惭愧啊)。   拍题工具成为抄作业神器。一年下来,拍题App应该在学生手机里成了标配了吧,粗算一下,莘莘学子们每天至少得被“解救”近亿次。刚需啊。   电动车来了。横穿中国是不是可行还不知道,但是从北京开到上海已经可以了。有几个好事者已经亲身试验了,有兴趣的朋友可以自己搜索“京沪电动行”找到那个视频。   这些是我没猜中的(自己打脸:pia,pia):   美团确实上线了早餐业务,但是做了几个月就关掉了。Pia!   O2O服务商会把“阿姨”送到一二线城市的千家万户。美国的家政O2O祖师爷“HomeJoy”先带头关门了,中国的玩家们也活的不好。我有幸和HomeJoy的CEO吃了顿饭,了解到他们关门的最核心的原因不是员工诉讼,而是“跳单”导致的低留存。据我了解,中国的玩家们也一样。仔细想想,其实还是因为平台的撮合价值还不够高,敌不过“跳单”的诱惑,你看滴滴打车就不怕跳单,有的城市不但不补贴,已经把佣金收到接近30%了。Pia!   一些需求很刚性的垂直领域,例如健康、丽人等,会诞生强势互联网品牌。现在回头来看,某些垂直领域的“上门”带来的体验提升可能没有我预想的那么大,普通老百姓们也并不像我想象的那么忙、那么懒。补贴停了以后,大部分人又回到线下门店去了。Pia!   微信朋友圈的体验在变坏,期待有高人找到一条缝长出一颗通天的豌豆树。这事没发生。微信的团队意识到这个问题了,他们对朋友圈的体验小心呵护,广告和游戏都没敢放开,红包也严格控制着没让发。关键是它有个核武器威力太强大――微信独特的群聊功能,是一个有弹性的社交网络,用户可以把不同维度的人临时组群,受众精准地发信息。有新朋友就建新群,好友疏远了,群自然就沉了。群就相当于一个动态的朋友圈,可大可小,也保护了朋友圈这个社交网络的体验。太牛了!Pia!   啊,转眼2015年就这么过去了,又快又精彩。资本市场从狂热期进入了冷静期,但是各大友商VC都融了许多钱还没投出去,已经形成了堰塞湖。蓝湖资本虽然一直在不紧不慢地投着,不过第一期基金也有大部分还没投出去。创新的节奏也慢下来了吗?我们对2016和未来有哪些期待呢?我准备明天再发一篇《年底总结-展望篇》,欢迎关注蓝湖资本的微信公众号(BlueLakeCapital),咱们明天继续聊。相关的主题文章:

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